{"id":591,"date":"2026-04-29T12:28:07","date_gmt":"2026-04-29T03:28:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/spell.umin.jp\/thespellblog\/?p=591"},"modified":"2026-04-29T12:43:00","modified_gmt":"2026-04-29T03:43:00","slug":"%e3%81%af%e3%81%97%e3%81%8b%ef%bc%88%e9%ba%bb%e3%81%97%e3%82%93%ef%bc%89%e3%81%ab%e3%81%8b%e3%81%8b%e3%81%a3%e3%81%9f%e4%ba%ba%e3%81%af%e3%83%af%e3%82%af%e3%83%81%e3%83%b3%e3%82%92%e6%89%93%e3%81%a3","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/spell.umin.jp\/thespellblog\/?p=591","title":{"rendered":"\u306f\u3057\u304b\uff08\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\uff09\u306b\u304b\u304b\u3063\u305f\u4eba\u306f\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u3092\u6253\u3063\u305f\u4eba\u3070\u304b\u308a\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u306f\u610f\u5473\u304c\u306a\u3044\u306e\u304b\uff01\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"\"<\/div>\n

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\u6771\u4eac\u90fd\u65b0\u5bbf\u533a\u306e\u5c0f\u5b66\u6821\u3067\u5150\u7ae5\u3068\u6559\u8077\u54e118\u4eba\u306e\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u3078\u306e\u96c6\u56e3\u611f\u67d3\u304c\u78ba\u8a8d\u3055\u308c\uff0c2014\u5e74\u676512\u5e74\u632f\u308a\u306e\u5b66\u5e74\u9589\u9396\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5831\u9053<\/a>\u3067\u4f1d\u3048\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u308b\uff0e\u305d\u3057\u3066\uff0c18\u4eba\u4e2d16\u4eba\uff0888.9%\uff09\u306f\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f32\u56de\u63a5\u7a2e\u6e08\u307f\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3068\u306e\u3053\u3068\u3060\u3063\u305f\uff0e\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306f\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u3092\u63a5\u7a2e\u3057\u3066\u3082\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306a\u306e\u304b\uff1f<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u306e\u52b9\u679c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

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\u3053\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\u4e2d\u306b\u300c\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u306f\u30011\u56de\u63a5\u7a2e\u3067\u7d0493\u301c95%\u30012\u56de\u63a5\u7a2e\u306797\u301c99%\u306e\u4e88\u9632\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u300d\u3068\u3042\u308a\uff0c\u3053\u308c\u306f\u3053\u308c\u3067\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u306e\u3060\u304c\uff0c\u300c97%\u306e\u4e88\u9632\u52b9\u679c\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3068\uff0c\u3053\u308c\u3092\u898b\u305f\u4eba\u306f\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u3092\u6253\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308c\u3070\u307b\u307c\u9632\u3052\u308b\u3093\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3046\u306e\u3067\uff0c\u300c18\u4eba\u4e2d16\u4eba\u306f\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f32\u56de\u63a5\u7a2e\u6e08\u307f\u300d\u3068\u805e\u3044\u3066\u9a5a\u304f\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\uff0e\u4eba\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u306f\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u306e\u52b9\u679c\u306b\u7591\u554f\u3092\u6301\u3064\u3060\u308d\u3046\uff0e
\u3053\u306e\u300c97\uff05\u306e\u4e88\u9632\u52b9\u679c\u300d\u306f\uff0c\u300c\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u306b\u304b\u304b\u308b\u306f\u305a\u3060\u3063\u305f\u4eba\u306e97%\u304c\u304b\u304b\u3089\u305a\u306b\u6e08\u307f\uff0c3\uff05\u306f\u304b\u304b\u3063\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3046\u300d\u306e\u610f\u5473\u3060\uff0e\u3060\u304b\u3089\u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\uff0c\u6c7a\u3057\u3066\u300c\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u306b\u304b\u304b\u3063\u305f\u4eba\u306e3\uff05\u304c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u5473\u3067\u306f\u306a\u3044\uff0e<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u306b\u5360\u3081\u308b\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u5272\u5408\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u306e\u601d\u8003\u5b9f\u9a13<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

2026\u5e744\u67081\u65e5\u6642\u70b9\u306e\u65b0\u5bbf\u533a\u306e\u63a8\u8a08\u4eba\u53e3<\/a>\u306f354,444\u4eba\uff0e\u4eee\u306b\u533a\u5185\u3067\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u3092\u767a\u75c7\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u4eba\u304c\u73fe\u5728\u5224\u660e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b18\u4eba\u3060\u3051\u3060\u3068\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\uff08\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u306f\u672a\u8a3a\u65ad\u306e\u4eba\u3082\u3044\u308b\u3060\u308d\u3046\u3057\uff0c\u6642\u9593\u3068\u3068\u3082\u306b\u5897\u3048\u308b\uff09\uff0c\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u7387\u306b\u3088\u3063\u3066\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u306e\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u5272\u5408\u304c\u3069\u3046\u5909\u308f\u308b\u304b\u3092\u30b7\u30df\u30e5\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u3057\u3066\u307f\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u3082\u3057\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u7387\u304c10%\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3089<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u3082\u3057\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u7387\u304c10%\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3089\uff0c\u65b0\u5bbf\u533a\u4eba\u53e354,444\u4eba\u306e\u3046\u3061\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306f319,000\u4eba\uff0e\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u7f79\u60a3\u30ea\u30b9\u30af\u304c\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e3%\u3068\u4eee\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u3068\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u7387\u3092p1<\/em>\u3068\u3057\u3066\uff0c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

319,000\u4eba\u00d7p1\uff0b35,444\u4eba\u00d7p1\u00d70.03\uff1d18<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u306f17.94\u4eba\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u306f0.06\u4eba\u3068\u306a\u308a\uff0c\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u306e\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u5272\u5408\u306f0.33%\u3068\u306a\u308b\uff0e\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3063\u3066\uff0c\u306f\u3057\u304b\u306b\u304b\u304b\u3063\u305f18\u4eba\u4e2d\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u3092\u3057\u305f\u4eba\u306f1\u4eba\u3082\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005<\/td>\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005<\/td>\u5408\u8a08<\/td><\/tr>
\u4eba\u53e3<\/td>319,000\u4eba<\/td>35,444\u4eba<\/td>354,444\u4eba<\/td><\/tr>
\u7f79\u60a3\u8005<\/td>17.94\u4eba<\/td>0.06\u4eba\uff08\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u306e0.33%<\/strong>\uff09<\/td>18\u4eba<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u3082\u3057\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u7387\u304c90%\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3089<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u3082\u3057\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u7387\u304c90%\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3089\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306f35,444\u4eba\u3067\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u7387\u3092p2<\/em>\u3068\u3057\u3066\uff0c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

35,444\u4eba<\/em>\u00d7p2\uff0b319,000\u4eba<\/em>\u00d7p2\u00d70.03\uff1d18<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u306f14.17\u4eba\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u306f3.83\u4eba\u3068\u306a\u308a\uff0c\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u306e\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u5272\u5408\u306f21%\u3068\u306a\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005<\/td>\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005<\/td>\u5408\u8a08<\/td><\/tr>
\u4eba\u53e3<\/td>35,444\u4eba<\/td>319,000\u4eba<\/td>354,444\u4eba<\/td><\/tr>
\u7f79\u60a3\u8005<\/td>14.17\u4eba<\/td>3.83\u4eba\uff08\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u306e21%<\/strong>\uff09<\/td>18\u4eba<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u3082\u3057\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u7387\u304c99%\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3089<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u3082\u3057\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u7387\u304c99%\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3089\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306f3,544\u4eba\u3067\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u7387\u3092p3<\/em>\u3068\u3057\u3066\uff0c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3,544\u4eba<\/em>\u00d7p3\uff0b350,900\u4eba<\/em>\u00d7p3\u00d70.03\uff1d18<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306e\u3067\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u306f4.53\u4eba\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u306f13.47\u4eba\u3068\u306a\u308a\uff0c\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u306e\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u5272\u5408\u306f75%\u306b\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/td>\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005<\/td>\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005<\/td>\u5408\u8a08<\/td><\/tr>
\u4eba\u53e3<\/td>3,544\u4eba<\/td>350,900\u4eba<\/td>354,444\u4eba<\/td><\/tr>
\u7f79\u60a3\u8005<\/td>4.53\u4eba<\/td>13.47\u4eba\uff08\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u306e75%<\/strong>\uff09<\/td>18\u4eba<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u7387\u306e\u9055\u3044\u306b\u3088\u308b\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u306e\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u5272\u5408\u307e\u3068\u3081<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u4ee5\u4e0a\u3092\u307e\u3068\u3081\u308b\u3068\uff0c\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u7387<\/td>\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u306e\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005<\/td>\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u306e\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005<\/td>\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u306e\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u5272\u5408<\/td><\/tr>
10%<\/td>17.94\u4eba<\/td>0.06\u4eba<\/td>\u7d040.33%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
90%<\/td>14.17\u4eba<\/td>3.83\u4eba<\/td>\u7d0421.26%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr>
99%<\/td>4.53\u4eba<\/td>13.47\u4eba<\/td>\u7d0474.81%<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u7387\u304c\u9ad8\u3044\u307b\u3069\uff0c\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u306e\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u5272\u5408\u306f\u9ad8\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u5206\u304b\u308b\uff0e<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u800518\u4eba\u4e2d16\u4eba\u304c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3053\u3068\u306e\u610f\u5473<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

\u3067\u306f\uff0c\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u800518\u4eba\u4e2d16\u4eba\u304c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u5834\u5408\u306f\u3069\u3046\u3060\u308d\u3046\u304b\uff0e\u5168\u4eba\u53e3\u306e\u3046\u3061\u306e\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u5272\u5408\u3092\u9006\u7b97\u3059\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u3067\u304d\u308b\uff0e
\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u306e\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u5272\u5408\u3092P<\/em>\uff0c\u7f79\u60a3\u7387\u3092a<\/em>\u3059\u308b\u3068\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u306f354,444\u4eba\u00d7P<\/em>\u00d7a<\/em>\u00d70.03\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u672a\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u306f354,444\u4eba\u00d7(1-P<\/em>)\u00d7a<\/em>\u306a\u306e\u3067\uff0c<\/p>\n\n\n\n

354,444<\/mn>\u00d7<\/mo>P<\/mi>\u00d7<\/mo>a<\/mi>\u00d7<\/mo>0.03<\/mn><\/mrow>354,444<\/mn>\u00d7<\/mo>(<\/mo>1<\/mn>\u2212<\/mo>P<\/mi>)<\/mo>\u00d7<\/mo>a<\/mi>+<\/mo>354,444<\/mn>\u00d7<\/mo>P<\/mi>\u00d7<\/mo>a<\/mi>\u00d7<\/mo>0.03<\/mn><\/mrow><\/mfrac>=<\/mo>16<\/mn>18<\/mn><\/mfrac><\/mrow>\\frac{354{,}444 \\times P \\times a \\times 0.03}{354{,}444 \\times (1-P) \\times a + 354{,}444 \\times P \\times a \\times 0.03} = \\frac{16}{18}<\/annotation><\/semantics><\/math><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u3053\u308c\u3092\u89e3\u304f\u3068\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u7f79\u60a3\u8005\u4e2d\u306e\u63a5\u7a2e\u8005\u306e\u5272\u5408\u306f\u3000P<\/em>=99.63%<\/strong>\u3000\u3068\u306a\u308b\uff0e\u3064\u307e\u308a\uff0c\u5730\u57df\u4f4f\u6c11\u306e\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u304c\u9ebb\u3057\u3093\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u3092\u63a5\u7a2e\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3092\u610f\u5473\u3059\u308b\uff0e
\u3053\u308c\u306e\u610f\u5473\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3053\u308d\u306f\uff0c\u611f\u67d3\u3057\u305f\u4eba\u306b\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u3092\u6253\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u4eba\u304c\u591a\u3044\uff0c\u3068\u611f\u3058\u305f\u3089\uff0c\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u306b\u306f\u52b9\u679c\u304c\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u306f\u306a\u304f\uff0c\u305d\u306e\u5730\u57df\u3067\u306f\uff0c\u304d\u3061\u3093\u3068\u30ef\u30af\u30c1\u30f3\u3092\u6253\u3063\u3066\u3044\u305f\u4eba\u304c\u591a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306e\u88cf\u4ed8\u3051\u306b\u306a\u308b<\/strong>\u306e\u3060\uff0e\u3088\u304f\u8003\u3048\u305f\u3089\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u524d\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308b\u3051\u308c\u3069\uff0e
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\"\"
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